Internal Market Brief

Jun 29

INTERNAL MARKET BRIEFWEEK OF JUN 22 – JUN 26, 2026

WTI fell $6.24 (≈8%) to $70.24 as freed Gulf barrels poured out of the Strait of Hormuz and Brent flipped into prompt contango for the first time since February — a near-term glut even as Hormuz traffic only just restarts. U.S. crude drew 6.1 MMb and Cushing hit a 12-year low; Canadian July condensates tightened while June stayed soft; AECO firmed to ~$1.69 CAD/GJ and Henry Hub eased on July expiry.

Published June 29, 2026Contango Commodity Marketing Inc.

At a glance

Weekly Snapshot

Settlements for the week ended June 26, 2026. Prices in USD/bbl. Deltas are week-on-week unless noted.

Crude & Positioning

WTI

WTI (Fri Jun 26)$70.24−$6.24 wk

Brent (Fri, est.)~$73.5≈ WTI +$3

WTI weekly low$68.90Thu

WTI (Mon open)$76.49

Term structureWTI backwdn.Brent/Dubai contango

Hormuz outbound24 / daypeak 38; vs 6–8 pre-MOU

Outbound flow~10 MMb/drestarting

Supply & Inventories

EIA / IEA

Cushing stocks<20 MMbbl12-yr low

U.S. commercial crude−6.1 MMbdraw

SPR release−9.1 MMb

China crude imports−5 MMb/dbuyer’s strike

Crude on water126 MMbbl~½ to Asia

Gasoline / diesel+2.1 / +3.1builds

Section 01 · Crude Oil

WTI — A Transitory Glut as Hormuz Barrels Flood Out

WTI extended its weekly slide, opening Monday at $76.49 USD/bbl and falling $6.24 to close Friday at $70.24, after touching a weekly low of $68.90 Thursday — tracking Brent roughly $8.50 lower as both Brent and Dubai flipped into prompt contango for the first time since February.

Update
weekend

Weekend escalation: Iran struck U.S. sites in Kuwait and Bahrain; the U.S. hit back after a Hormuz tanker attack; an Aramco helicopter crash at Ras Tanura killed 14 — an escalation premium stays alive even as barrels flow.

Opened Monday $76.49, fell $6.24 to $70.24 Friday; weekly low $68.90 Thursday.
Tracked Brent ~$8.50 lower — Brent and Dubai flipped into prompt contango (first since February); WTI alone held thin backwardation.
Outbound Hormuz transits surged to 38 ships Wed, avg 24/day (vs 6–8 pre-MOU) → ~10 MMb/d outbound.
Saudi Aramco resumed Ras Tanura loadings (2 VLCCs) for the first time since the war began.

Fig 1Outbound Hormuz transits surge after the MOU (ships/day), then ease late-weekSource: Commodity Context, Kpler

WTI Daily Settles — Week of Jun 22–26, 2026

Prompt month, USD/bbl · Opened $76.49, fell $6.24 (≈−8.2%) to $70.24 Fri · weekly low $68.90 (Thu)

Mon: opens at $76.49; the slide resumes as Hormuz outbound transits climb and the U.S.–Iran peace MOU holds · Tue: paper-market selling persists; Brent slides toward prompt contango as freed Gulf barrels hit the water · Wed: outbound Hormuz transits surge to 38 ships; outbound flow ~10 MMb/d as Saudi Aramco resumes Ras Tanura loadings · Thu: touches a weekly low of $68.90 — briefly under $70 as renewed Hormuz flows and a 9.1 MMb SPR release offset a Cushing draw · Fri: falls >3% to $70.24; Brent flips into prompt contango for the first time since February, capping a $6.24 weekly loss

Fig 2WTI daily settles with key catalystsSource: NYMEX settlements, internal compilation

A Transitory Mini-Glut

Mini-glut = freed Gulf barrels meeting China’s buyer’s strike (−5 MMb/d imports).
Non-Chinese Asia already covered July from Western sources — those cargoes land as Gulf crude floods in.
Crude on water ~126 MMbbl, roughly half in or heading to Asia.
Seen transitory — balances retighten into late summer as restarts lag and China returns.

Domestic: Cushing at a 12-Year Low

Cushing below 20 MMbbl — lowest since 2014 (partly its waning hub role as flows shift to the Gulf Coast).
Headline commercial crude −0.5 MMb: a 6.1 MMb crude draw + 9.1 MMb SPR release, offset by fuel builds.
Products built: gasoline +2.1, diesel +3.1 MMb.
Slowest headline decline since early April — but crude set for fresh seasonal lows.

Fig 3U.S. Cushing crude stocks fall below the 20-MMbbl operational floor — lowest since 2014Source: EIA

Desk angles

STRUCTURE

Contango Confirms the Glut

Brent and Dubai flipped into prompt contango for the first time since February while WTI held thin backwardation — the clearest signal the freed-barrel wave has tipped the global market into near-term oversupply.

TRANSITORY

Glut With a Clock

The surge is freed Gulf crude meeting China’s buyer’s strike; once stranded barrels clear and Beijing returns, balances retighten into late summer. The bearish window is the next several weeks, not the whole curve.

GEOPOLITICAL

Escalation Premium Lives

Iran struck U.S. sites in Kuwait and Bahrain and the U.S. hit back after a Hormuz tanker attack — each accusing the other of breaching the MOU. The routing dispute over Hormuz keeps tail risk firmly bid.

CANADA

July Condensate Tightens

Even as WTI cratered, July C5 condensates tightened ~$3.25 over two weeks toward index — hinting oil-sands and upgrader supply is recovering to pre-flood levels and lifting diluent demand.

Desk
view

Bias: respect the bearish front while contango holds, but keep escalation hedges — a reclosure or fresh strike snaps price higher. Levels: $68.90 low · $70.24 Fri · $76.49 Mon open. Producers: June diffs soft, July condensates tightening toward index — favour July diluent; SYN has collapsed $44.50 → $3.00. Watch: transit counts, China imports, Lebanon/Hormuz.

Risk scenarios — WTI path (post-MOU, mini-glut)
Scenario	Trigger	WTI path
Bull / escalation	Hormuz routing fight escalates; strikes disrupt loadings; China returns early	$78–85 retightening snap
Base / glut clears	Transits normalize; stranded crude drawn down; balances retighten late summer	$68–76, range-bound
Bear / supply wave	Freed barrels overwhelm a Chinese buyer’s strike; restarts accelerate	$60–65 as contango deepens

Storylines

HORMUZ

Tankers Exit Hormuz, Oversupply Builds

Stranded tankers kept leaving the Strait as the interim U.S.–Iran deal unlocked trapped Gulf crude, with shipments at their highest since the conflict began and Saudi Aramco resuming Ras Tanura loadings after a four-month halt. Brent flipped into contango for the first time since the war and prices fell more than 3% Friday — though traffic slowed after a cargo vessel was hit near Oman.

DEMAND

China the Key Buyer After Iran Waiver

With Asian refiners covered through August on affordable non-sanctioned crude and Japanese buyers facing compliance hurdles, Iran has few outlets even as it rushes cargoes out — crude on water now ~126 million barrels, roughly half in or heading to Asia. Analysts expect Chinese independent refiners to be the ultimate buyer, drawn by cheap barrels and the need to replenish strategic stocks.

GEOPOLITICAL

Iran–US Strikes Resume Despite Ceasefire

Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain after President Trump threatened Iran’s leadership over alleged breaches of the accord, with each side accusing the other of violations. The U.S. carried out fresh strikes following a Hormuz tanker attack, while Iran reasserted its claim to regulate shipping through the waterway.

SUPPLY

Aramco Helicopter Crash Kills 14

A helicopter operated by Saudi Aramco crashed Sunday at Ras Tanura on Saudi Arabia’s eastern Gulf coast, killing 14 nationals, with the cause unknown and an investigation underway. The crash came days after Aramco resumed crude loadings at the terminal following a nearly four-month halt.

U.S. SUPPLY

Cushing Stocks Near 12-Year Low

U.S. crude inventories at the Cushing hub fell to their lowest since 2014, below the 20-million-barrel minimum for normal operations, even as gasoline and distillate stocks rose. WTI briefly traded under $70 as renewed Hormuz flows and strategic-reserve releases offset the draw, reflecting Cushing’s waning role as flows shift to Gulf Coast export terminals.

Section 02 · Western Canada

Canadian Differentials — June Soft, July Condensates Tighten

A soft front-end persisted as the WTI CMA weakened and a wide June/July roll pressured prompt June diffs — June condensates and heavies held near recent lows, while July condensates tightened steadily toward index.

June soft: C5-PCE NAM −$15.10 → −$17.40, settled −$16.50; C5-FSPL ~−$16.00; C5-CRW −$14.00.
June sweets firmed late: PCE −$11.50 → −$8.10, PEM −$8.30; PSO −$12.00; SYN slid $7.50 → $4.00.
June heavies near lows: WCS −$16.60 → −$16.20 (index ~−$15.90); CHV −$16.40.
July tightened: C5-PCE NAM −$5.30 → −$3.75 (vs −$7.30 index); FSPL/CRW −$3.60; PCE ~−$1.60; WCS ~−$12.10 at index.
C5-NAM +~$3.25 over two weeks — negative C5/SYN correlation hints oil-sands supply recovered, lifting diluent demand.

Fig 4C5-PCE NAM — June holds near recent lows, July tightens toward index (USD/bbl)Source: Contango Commodity Marketing

July indicative index — Western Canadian grades (USD/bbl vs WTI, estimate)
Grade	July (est.)	Note
C5-PCE NAM (diluent)	−$3.75	well above ~−$7.30 index
C5-FSPL (diluent)	−$3.60	~$0.10–0.20 above PCE NAM
C5-CRW (diluent)	−$3.60	above index
PCE (sweet)	−$1.60	just above index
WCS (heavy)	−$12.10	at ~−$12.10 index
SYN (upgraded)	+$3.00	from +$44.50 (Jun 18) — well below index

Tbl 1July indicative index (estimate)Source: Contango Commodity Marketing

Storylines

CONDENSATE

July Condensate Tightens ~$3.25

C5-NAM improved roughly $3.25 over the past two weeks, with July condensates trading well above index — likely on expectations that June’s offline oil-sands and upgrader supply recovers to pre-flood levels for July, lifting diluent demand.

SOUTH AMERICA

Venezuela Exports Could Double

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Venezuelan crude exports could climb to 2 million bbl/d by the end of the administration — roughly double current levels — speaking at the Reuters Global Energy Forum in New York.

RUSSIA

Russia Weighs Diesel Export Ban

Russian authorities are weighing a months-long diesel export ban, TASS reported, as fuel-supply strains mount following Ukrainian drone attacks that have extensively damaged Russian refineries and energy infrastructure.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Vancouver Burrard Dredging Approved

The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority received all federal permits to dredge Burrard Inlet beneath the Second Narrows bridge, letting Aframax tankers loading from Trans Mountain fill more fully — work begins in September, amid calls to expand TMX and diversify exports away from the U.S.

Section 03 · Natural Gas — WCSB

AECO Firms as Turnarounds End and Receipts Rebound

Alberta gas firmed intra-week, opening near $1.52 CAD/GJ Monday and settling ~$1.69 Friday — still below the prior week as turnarounds wrapped, NGTL finished Edson Mainline Loop work, and field receipts rebounded to summer norms.

AECO opened ~$1.52 CAD/GJ Monday, settled ~$1.69 Friday — up intra-week but below the prior week.
Turnarounds concluded and NGTL finished Edson Mainline Loop work → field receipts rebounded to summer norms.
Storage injections lag 2024/25 pace, leaving summer injection room; LNG Canada near full capacity may need new demand outlets.
Alberta–BC border flows improved; softer Oil Sands Delivery Area flows offset part of it.
NGTL flags more maintenance through early July — may constrain USJR receipts and support near-term pricing.

Fig 5NGTL field receipts (MMcf/d) — rebounded to 2025 summer levelsSource: Contango Commodity Marketing

Fig 6Alberta storage (Bcf) — injections lag the 2024/25 paceSource: Contango Commodity Marketing

Section 04 · Natural Gas — U.S.

Henry Hub Eases on July Expiry as Storage Builds 76 Bcf

After opening near $3.216 USD/MMBtu, Henry Hub climbed midweek on above-average July 4 heat before the expiring July contract settled sharply lower Friday — down 11.2 cents (3.3%) — as a bearish 76 Bcf build lifted Lower-48 stocks to 2,835 Bcf, 152 Bcf above the five-year average.

July expiry settled −11.2 cents (3.3%) as models cooled; new prompt ~$3.231 (opened ~$3.216).
Storage +76 Bcf to 2,835 Bcf — 152 Bcf (5.7%) above the 5-yr average, topping ~69 Bcf consensus.
Record European heat (9–13°C above normal) lifts cooling demand + French nuclear risk → stronger pull on U.S. LNG (~59% of EU LNG).
U.S. LNG feedgas hit a record ~18.5 Bcf/d (+0.5) on Corpus Christi + Golden Pass.

Fig 7U.S. working gas in storage (Bcf) — +76 Bcf to 2,835, 152 Bcf above the 5-yr averageSource: EIA

Storylines

DEMAND

Record European Heat Lifts Power Demand

A record heat wave ran mainland Europe 9–13°C above normal and set a UK monthly high of 36.9°C, surging cooling demand. France faced power tightness from weak wind and up to 18 GW of nuclear curtailment risk, lifting gas-for-power burn and Europe’s pull on LNG.

LNG

Europe’s Growing U.S. Gas Reliance

Europe now sources ~59% of its LNG from the U.S. (a record 64% in April), and with Russian LNG banned from 2027 analysts see the share topping 75%. At ~26% of total EU gas imports, U.S. cargoes remain far easier to replace than Russian pipeline gas.

SUPPLY

Qatar Set to Lift Force Majeure

Asian buyers expect QatarEnergy to let its force majeure lapse in mid-July (Europe mid-August), signaling a return to contractual supply as Gulf tensions ease. Output from undamaged units could normalize within weeks, contingent on safe Hormuz passage.

U.S. LNG

U.S. LNG Feedgas Hits Record

U.S. LNG feedgas averaged a record ~18.5 Bcf/d in the week ending June 22, up 0.5, as Corpus Christi Stage III’s Train 6 reached substantial completion and Golden Pass ramped; a June 19 compressor trip on Freeport’s Train 2 partly offset the gains.

Danielle Kenny